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Astros vs. Phillies World Series Game 4 Analysis

Posted on January 3, 2023April 27, 2025 by Max T

The Houston Astros threw only the second ever World Series no-hitter on their way to a series evening win over the Philadelphia Phillies.

Because of the series being postponed due to rain the Phillies were able to give the ball to Aaron Nola here in game four. Nola started out the top of the first with two quick outs, getting Jose Altuve to line out on a cutter that was just off the plate. Then striking out Jeremy Pena on three pitches, getting him to whiff at two good curveballs. Yordan Alvarez singled into left center field to keep the inning alive, taking a 4-seamer at the top of the zone the other way. Whether he was sitting on it or not, Yordan most likely knew a fastball was coming because he blasted a curveball foul the pitch before. Alex Bregman grounded out to second to end the top half of the inning, tough play for Jean Segura because the Phillies were shifted playing Bregman to pull. The Astros had no change with their starter due to the postponement, as they gave the ball to Cristian Javier. Javier has a 1-2-3 inning to start game four, getting both Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins to fly out, through the first two hitters Javier has thrown 11 pitches, 10 of which were fastballs. Javier then struck out J.T. Realmuto in an absolutely unfair at-bat, he painted a slider down and away, painted the outside edge with a fastball, and threw a wipeout slider for the punchout.

Kyle Tucker doubled to lead off the top of the second. There was some poor pitch sequencing from Nola and Realmuto as they started Tucker off with two fastballs, of which he was late on both, so it makes little sense to slow it down with a breaking ball especially one in the zone. Tucker doubled off that third pitch curveball. Gurriel got a curve that Nola left middle middle, but he just couldn’t elevate it, grounding out to third. Some aggressive baserunning from Tucker allowed him to reach third on Gurriel’s groundout. Tucker waited for Alec Bohm to make the throw across the diamond then took off and Hoskins couldn’t make the return throw in time allowing Tucker to secure the extra 90 feet. Christian Vazquez was then hit by a sinker that ran too far inside, something that panned out in Nola’s favor. Instead of facing Vazquez with one out and a runner on third, Nola faced Aledmys Diaz with the inning ending double play now possible, but Nola didn’t even need that. He struck out both Diaz and Chas McCormick on five pitches, with seven curves thrown in those ten pitches. Went to his A pitch to get out of the jam, curve had a .195 xBAA on the year. To start the bottom half of the second, Javier walked Bryce Harper on six pitches all of which were fastballs. Although Harper did receive the benefit of a call from home plate umpire Tripp Gibson who should have rung him up on the fifth pitch of the at-bat. Javier had a White Castle special against Nick Castellanos striking him out on three straight sliders. Bohm struck out on a fastball just off the plate, and then Javier jammed Bryson Stott with an up and in fastball getting him to pop out to end the inning, the lead off walk led to nothing.

Altuve grounded out on a first pitch cutter to start the third inning. Pena followed him up with a strikeout on a great curve from Nola, who used a palindrome pitch sequence of curves and changeups. Yordan Alvarez then recorded a hard hit ball, 97.7 mph EV, on a fastball above the zone, however it found Kyle Schwarber’s glove for an inning ending lineout. To lead off the bottom of the third, Jean Segura saw nothing but fastballs and flew out to center field. Brandon Marsh walked on four pitches, as Javier threw a breaking ball to a lefty for the first time in the game during this at-bat. Kyle Schwarber then went down looking on a perfectly placed backdoor slider from Javier. Schwarber came as close to a hit as the Phillies would all night, hitting a ball down the first base line that was just foul. Javier would end the inning by jamming Rhys Hoskins with an up and in fastball, popping him out to first.

The Astros started off the top of the fourth hitting multiple balls hard. Bregman led off the inning hitting a line drive to center field that resulted in an out. Similarly Kyle Tucker rocketed a line drive but he hit it directly as Castellanos in right field for the second out of the inning. Gurriel hit a hard line drive as well but his actually resulted in a hit. Vazquez followed him up by smoking a first pitch middle middle cutter into right field for another single, as the Astros try to generate a little two out magic. However, Aledmys Diaz would continue his freezing cold streak and end the magic with a groundout to shortstop. The Astros tried to get more aggressive with Nola in the top half of the fourth, sending five batters to the plate with all five swinging at the first pitch and four of them putting the first pitch in play. Realmuto led off the bottom of the fourth for the Phillies with a little déjà vu from another unfair plate appearance against Javier. Javier dotted two sliders to start Realmuto off then finished him with a perfectly placed above the zone heater. Realmuto has struck out twice as Javier has pitched perfectly against him. Harper followed that up with a three pitch strikeout, all of which were fastballs. Castellanos also strikes out swinging, Cristian Javier is blowing his fastball by the Phillies top guys.

Chas McCormick recorded an infield hit to start off the top of the fifth, hitting a curve that caught too much of the plate hard, as Bryson Stott made a sliding play to keep it in the infield but he never had a chance to throw Chas out with his speed. Altuve then ripped a sinker in off the plate into left field for another single. Pena hammers a curve that caught too much of the plate into left field, McCormick had to hold up to make sure Stott didn’t catch it behind him, so the Astros go station to station and load up the bases for Yordan. Aaron Nola missed his spot with the curve twice in the inning, and Rob Tomson decided to pull his leash and go to the bullpen. Tomson went to Jose Alvarado to face the lefty lane of the Astros. Alvarado hits Yordan with the first pitch, a 99.2 mph sinker which scores the first run of the game. Bregman breaks the game open taking an 0-2, 100.7 mph sinker the other way for a two RBI double. According to, @MLBMetrics on twitter, Bregman is the first player to turn around a 100+ mph pitch for an XBH in the World Series since the pitch tracking era began. Kyle Tucker followed Bregman up with another hard hit ball, Tucker’s third in three at-bats, this one is a sac-fly that scores Yordan and advances Bregman. Gurriel would add another run to the Astros lead, ripping a two strike cutter past Stott for an RBI single. Alvarado would record two punchouts to end the inning, getting Vazquez on a perfectly placed cutter and Diaz on a front door sinker that he watched for strike three. In the bottom half of the fifth, Bohm and Stott would both strikeout looking at 93.2 mph fastballs painted at the bottom of the zone. Javier has struck out the last five Phillies all on his fastball. He would end the bottom half of the fifth by getting Segura to chase a slider and pop it up to first.

The Phillies gave Andrew Bellatti the ball for the top of the sixth inning. Which was a 9 pitch inning against the 9-1-2 of the Astros order. McCormick struck out chasing a slider below the zone, Altuve flew out on a first pitch slider, and Pena flew out as well except it was on a fastball. Primarily a two pitch guy, this year Bellatti threw his first meaningful MLB innings since 2015. He posted fantastic strikeout/swing and miss numbers, being in the 96th percentile of K% and 97th percentile of whiff%. Cristian Javier threw 20 pitches in the bottom of the sixth, which was his last inning, 16 of those being his 4-seamer. Marsh, Schwarber, and Hoskins all grounded out on that 4-seamer. Javier throws six no-hit innings and caps it off with three groundouts, after posting a 56.9 FB% in 2022. Despite these high fly ball numbers, Javier excels at keeping the ball in the park posting only a 9.1 HR/FB% in 2022, which was good for T-18th among pitchers with at least 140 innings. Hitters inability to square up his fastball is the reason for the large amount of low exit velocity fly balls against Javier, his 4-seamer had a .181 xBAA in 2022.

The top of the seventh was given to David Robertson, who started it out with a four pitch strikeout of Yordan Alvarez where all of the strikes in the AB came on his curve. Robertson then got Bregman to fly out on a first pitch slider. Tucker followed up the two quick outs with a 5 pitch walk, something that has bit Robertson all year. Robertson’s 13.3 BB% in 2022 is the 4th worst among pitchers who threw at least 1000 pitches. His walk problem became even worse once he was dealt at the trade deadline, increasing from the 11.5% with the Cubs to 16.2% with the Phillies. Just like Bregman, Yuli Gurriel popped up a first pitch slider, as Robertson avoided damage after his two out walk. Bryan Abreu got the bottom half of the seventh, facing the 3-4-5 of the Phillies, he struck out the side. Getting both Realmuto and Castellanos on wipeout sliders and Harper on a 100 mph fastball painted on the outside edge. One of the best relievers in the game, Abreu is still only 25 years of age, and was absolutely filthy this year for the Astros. He has a devastating slider which recorded a 51.3% whiff rate, .163 xBAA, and a miniscule .213 xSLGA. On top of that he has a 4-seamer that has touched 101 mph and sits in the 94th percentile of fastball velocity.

Zach Eflin struck out the side in the top of the eighth against the bottom third of the Astros order. Vazquez, Diaz, and McCormick all struck out on the fourth pitch of the at-bat which was a curveball to all three hitters. Eflin revived his curveball this year, taking it from a 0.2 RV/100 and .323 xwOBAA pitch in 2021 to its impressive -1.3 RV/100 and .186 xwOBAA statline in 2022. Rafael Montero only needed 10 pitches to get through his half of the eighth inning, all 10 of which were fastballs, nine 4-seamers and one sinker. Bohm struck out, Stott flew out, and Segura lined out on a ball that held up just enough for Kyle Tucker to keep the no-no intact.

Brad Hand toed the slab for the Phillies in the top of the ninth. Hand started it off getting Altuve to ground out to short. Pena would record the only hit for the Astros in the ninth, rifling a slider back up the middle for a single. Yordan similarly recorded a hard hit ball, his third of the game, but his was a flyout to Marsh in the left center gap. Bregman would then get under a slider that was left elevated, flying out to left to end the top half of the inning. Ryan Pressly would be called upon to cut the Phillies down finishing off the no-hitter, and he did just that. Pressly got Marsh to strikeout chasing a slider, Schwarber would be the only baserunner in the inning after working himself an eight pitch walk. Hoskins then flew out on a center cut slider. Another slider from Pressly secured both a first pitch groundout to third off the bat of Realmuto and the second World Series no-hitter in MLB history. Pressly has an elite slider, with a -2.5 RV/100, 51.7% whiff rate, and a .177 xwOBAA, there is a reason it is his most used pitch at a 36.8% usage rate. Also the reason why it was the pitch that recorded all three outs in the ninth inning of the Astros combined no hitter.

There is only one word to describe the Astros here in game four: dominant. Cristian Javier shoved to start it off, showing why he is one of the best young pitchers in the game. Bryan Abreu showed the same thing, striking out the side, doing so on the biggest stage. Then a couple of veteran relievers in Rafael Montero and Ryan Pressly closed it out and brought the no-no home. All momentum that the Phillies had after their 5 homer game three was just completely halted by the Astros abundance of arms. The series is evened up and will now return to Houston for at least one game. The Phillies look to have a bullpen game in game five, while the Astros will give the ball to Justin Verlander, who hopes to rebound after blowing a five run lead in game one.

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